Qatar is entering a new phase of economic expansion beyond the FIFA World Cup era, transitioning from infrastructure-heavy development to a more diversified, service-driven growth model, according to a new analysis from Knight Frank.
The report highlights that between 2020 and 2024, Qatar’s real non-hydrocarbon GDP grew at a compound annual rate of 3.4 percent, supported by strong performance in hospitality, logistics, retail, and real estate services. This momentum has persisted into 2025, with non-hydrocarbon sectors growing 5.3 percent in Q1 and 3.4 percent in Q2.
Researchers attribute the sustained growth to Qatar’s ability to capitalise on the legacy of its World Cup investments while advancing long-term reforms. Central to this transition is the Third National Development Strategy (NDS3), which prioritises innovation, productivity, and the development of knowledge-based industries.
The analysis notes a structural shift across the economy, with construction’s share of GDP falling from 13.4 percent in 2021 to 11.3 percent in 2024, as tourism, logistics, arts, recreation, and real estate continue to expand. These trends are reshaping Qatar’s labour market, creating more opportunities in service-oriented and digital sectors.
Qatar’s strong fiscal position remains a key pillar of its resilience. Despite moderating hydrocarbon prices, the IMF estimates the country’s fiscal breakeven at just $44.70 per barrel. Public debt has fallen from 72.6 percent of GDP in 2020 to 40.8 percent in 2024, with further reductions expected by year-end.
Population growth is also fuelling domestic demand, with residents aged 15+ increasing at a compound rate of 3.1 percent between 2022 and 2024. New long-term residency pathways such as the Mustaqel five-year visa are driving greater residential stability, boosting the housing market—particularly among skilled expatriates.
Knight Frank concludes that Qatar’s medium-term outlook remains positive, supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals, demographic expansion, and policy reforms geared toward private-sector growth. As NDS3 continues through 2030, new opportunities are expected to emerge across logistics, tourism, digital services, and real estate.
